Viewing archive of onsdag, 31 juli 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jul 31 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 212 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 31 Jul 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 39
(S15W44) produced an M1/Sb flare at 31/0153 UTC with associated
discrete frequency radio burst. This region continues its gradual
decay but maintains a delta configuration in the leader spot.
Region 50 (S08W32) has shown growth in area and spot count while
maintaining its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 44
(S21W49) appears to have been relatively stable in the last 24
hours. New Region 56 (N04E49) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is expected from Region 39, Region 44 or
Region 50. An isolated X-class event is possible from Region 39.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak shock
was detected at the L1 position by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at
approximately 31/1100 UTC. The Bz component of the IMF was
northward resulting in little geomagnetic activity.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on days one and two of the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 01 Aug till 03 Aug
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 31 Jul 209 Prognoserat 01 Aug-03 Aug 205/200/200 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 167
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 31 Jul 009/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 012/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 01 Aug till 03 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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