Viewing archive of måndag, 15 juli 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jul 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 196 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Jul 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 30
(N18W00) produced an X3/3b flare at 15/2008UTC associated with a
1900 sfu Tenflare, a Type IV radio sweep, and a magnetic crochet
(based on Boulder USGS magnetometer data). This region also produced
frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 15/1155 UTC associated
with a Type II radio sweep. Region 30 showed significant growth in
its trailer spots during the past few days including the formation
of multiple magnetic delta configurations. The remaining active
regions were unremarkable. New Regions 35 (S09E63) and 36 (S07E76)
were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 30 is likely to produce isolated M-class flares.
Region 30 could also produce another major flare during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to active levels on 16 July due to
recurrent coronal hole effects. Activity may increase to active to
minor storm levels on 17 July following today's X-flare. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event is expected to begin early on 16 July, also
due to today's X-flare.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Jul till 18 Jul
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 Jul 160 Prognoserat 16 Jul-18 Jul 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 161
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Jul 001/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/006 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 012/012-020/020-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Jul till 18 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
Senaste nytt
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