Viewing archive of lördag, 13 juli 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jul 13 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 194 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Jul 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 30
produced an M1/2f flare at 13/0008 UTC. This region also produced
numerous B- and C-class flares with minor discrete radio bursts and
sweeps. The number of umbrae has doubled today although penumbral
coverage appears to have slightly decayed since yesterday. Magnetic
structure has changed little today, the beta-gamma-delta
configuration remains evident. A 20 degree disappearing filament
was observed in the southeast quadrant at approximately 13/1300 UTC.
A partial halo CME was seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery which does not
appear to be earth directed. Regions 32 (S20W14) and 33 (N08E00)
were assigned today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 30 is still capable of producing an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through days one and
two. Day three may experience isolated active conditions due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Jul till 16 Jul
| M-klass | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Jul 135 Prognoserat 14 Jul-16 Jul 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 163
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Jul 012/020 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 006/008-008/010-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Jul till 16 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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