Viewing archive of fredag, 12 juli 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jul 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 193 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Jul 2002 . . . . Corrected Copy . . . . . . . .IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 30 (N19E37)
appears to be the only flaring region on the visible disk. Multiple
minor B- and C-class flares were produced from this region today.
Magnetic complexity and spot coverage continue to show steady
growth. Region is now depicting a strong delta magnetic
configuration in the trailing portion of cluster, and remains a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex. The few remaining spotted
regions have shown little change throughout the period. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 30 continues to exhibit the potential for
an isolated major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to minor storm
levels.A coronal hole in the southwest quadrant in concert with a
weak eastern flanking shock, from the partial halo CME observed on
the 07th of July, is believed to be responsible for the elevated
geomagnetic field activity.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on day one as the effects from the
geoeffective coronal hole wane.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Jul till 15 Jul
| M-klass | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Jul 133 Prognoserat 13 Jul-15 Jul 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 165
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Jul 008/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Jul 016/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Jul till 15 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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