Viewing archive of måndag, 3 juni 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jun 03 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 154 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 Jun 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several weak, impulsive
C-class events were scattered throughout the period. Region 9973
(S16W03) is still relatively large in spot count and areal coverage,
but appears to be losing some magnetic complexity and has been
mostly quiescent through the period. Region 9978 (S20E21) has
increased somewhat in size and spot count, and along with Region
9979 (S28E36), is trending toward greater magnetic complexity. Most
other active regions on the visible disk remain little changed. New
Region 9984 (N19E13) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the forecast period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled, with an
isolated high-latitude active period observed during 02/2100-2400
UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly unsettled, with some active and isolated minor
storm periods possible for the first day of the forecast period.
Thereafter, conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 Jun till 06 Jun
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 Jun 170 Prognoserat 04 Jun-06 Jun 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 182
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 02 Jun 014/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 03 Jun 011/014 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 020/020-012/012-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 Jun till 06 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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