Viewing archive of söndag, 2 juni 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jun 02 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 153 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 Jun 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate, due to the occurrence of an M-class event late in the period. Region 9979 (S30E50) produced an M1.1 x-ray flare, which peaked at 02/2044 UTC. The optical enhancement remained in progress at the end of the period, but preliminary reports suggest a 1f intensity. This event also produced a moderate tenflare (530 sfu) and a Type-II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1079 km/s). Several C-class events also occurred throughout the day: Region 9977 (S20W54) produced a C8/Sf event at 02/1015 UTC with associated Type-II (estimated velocity 323 km/s) and Type-IV radio sweeps. Region 9973 (S17E10) produced an impulsive C9/Sf at 02/1147 UTC. A long duration C3.2 x-ray enhancement peaked at 02/0050 UTC, but lacked correlating optical activity reports. Three new regions came into view on the east limb and were numbered today: 9981 (S22E70), 9982 (S03E74), and 9983 (N24E72).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to persist at low to moderate levels for the next three days. A small chance for an isolated major flare also exists for the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quite to active levels. A rising trend in solar wind speed and fluctuating IMF, in possible association with a weak coronal hole close to geoeffective longitudes on the sun, caused predominantly unsettled and isolated active periods throughout the day.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels for the next two days. Some combined effects from the numerous solar events of the past 48 hours are anticipated during this period. Conditions are expected to be mainly unsettled by the end of the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 Jun till 05 Jun
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       02 Jun 175
  Prognoserat   03 Jun-05 Jun  170/170/165
  90 Day Mean        02 Jun 183
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 01 Jun  005/008
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 02 Jun  012/015
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  015/015-020/020-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 Jun till 05 Jun
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%35%25%
Små stormförhållanden05%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt25%35%25%
Små stormförhållanden10%15%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%01%

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