Viewing archive of fredag, 26 april 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Apr 26 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 116 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 26 Apr 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z Solar activity was low with very isolated low C-class
activity observed. Region 9912 (N11W78) continues to slowly decay as
it approaches the west limb. Regions 9914 (N04W25), 9915 (N11W12),
and 9919 (N12E33), exhibited minor growth. The remaining regions on
the visible disk were stable or in decay. A significant segment of
the large E-W filament centered near S32W12 disappeared late in the
period. It is too early to confirm if a CME accompanied this
filament eruption.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Isolated low c-class flares are expected.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
that began on 21/0225Z, and peaked on 21/2320Z at 2520 pfu, ended
today at 26/0715Z. The 10 MeV proton flux remains elevated at near 5
pfu, but continues to slowly decline.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled with isolated active periods. A
recurrent coronal hole is moving into a geoeffectively favorable
position; expect disturbed conditions to develop this period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 27 Apr till 29 Apr
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 26 Apr 163 Prognoserat 27 Apr-29 Apr 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 26 Apr 196
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 25 Apr 002/005 Förväntat Afr/Ap 26 Apr 005/007 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 012/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 27 Apr till 29 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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