Viewing archive of torsdag, 25 april 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Apr 25 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 115 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Apr 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9912 (N11W65)
produced an impulsive M1/1f flare at 24/2156 UTC associated with
minor radio emission. This region continued to slowly decay. Region
9924 (S15W20), which emerged rapidly yesterday, began to gradually
decay. Minor growth was observed in Region 9915 (N12E01). The
remaining regions were unremarkable including newly numbered Region
9925 (S14W36).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with an outside chance for an isolated low-level M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during most of the
period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225
UTC persisted, but just barely above event threshold (the maximum
for this event was 2520 pfu at 21/2320 UTC).
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 26 April. Unsettled
to active levels are expected during 27 - 28 April due to recurrent
coronal hole effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to end early on 26 April.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Apr till 28 Apr
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 Apr 167 Prognoserat 26 Apr-28 Apr 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 25 Apr 197
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Apr 006/007 Förväntat Afr/Ap 25 Apr 006/007 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 012/012-015/015-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Apr till 28 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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