Viewing archive of torsdag, 29 november 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 333 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Nov 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 9715 (N05 E04) produced seven C-class flares and two M-class flares. The largest flare was an M5/1n at 29/1036 UTC. This region remains magnetically complex as a beta-gamma-delta configuration and has grown in area coverage, spot number and extent. Region 9715 produced two events with associated Type II Radio sweeps, an M1/Sf at 29/0149 UTC and a C7/Sf at 29/1405 UTC. Region 9717 (N04E53) and Region 9718 (S07E58) have shown some minor activity producing a single C-class flare and two C-class flares respectively..
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9715 has the potential to produce a major M-class flare or possibly an X-class flare. Region 9718 has also shown signs of growth and could produce M-class flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Quiet levels are expected for the first day of the period. Late on day two or early on day three the CME Shock from the M6/1b at 28/1635 UTC is expected to arrive at Earth. With the arrival of this shock the geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels with isolated minor storm conditions at higher latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Nov till 02 Dec
M-klass80%75%75%
X-klass20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       29 Nov 216
  Prognoserat   30 Nov-02 Dec  210/215/220
  90 Day Mean        29 Nov 218
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Nov  003/003
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 29 Nov  004/004
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  006/005-012/015-020/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Nov till 02 Dec
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt10%35%30%
Små stormförhållanden01%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%45%45%
Små stormförhållanden01%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%10%10%

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