Viewing archive of onsdag, 28 november 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 332 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Nov 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 9715 (N05E17) produced a major flare during the period. This impulsive M6/1b event peaked at 28/1635 UTC, and was associated with a Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 674 km/s, a Type IV radio sweep, and a 450 pfu tenflare. This event also produced a partial halo CME based on SOHO/LASCO imagery. Other notable flares from this region were an M2/1f flare at 27/2121 UTC and a C7 x-ray flare (optically correlated using SXI imagery) at 28/1543 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 889 km/s. Region 9715 continues to show significant growth as evidenced by a delta configuration magnetic classification that has become evident during the period. Four new regions were numbered today, Regions 9718 (S07E70), 9719 (N03E03), 9720 (S18E72), and 9721 (N10E78).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 22/2320 UTC, ended at 28/2100 UTC (max pfu of 18,900 occurred at 24/0555 UTC).
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through most of the forecast period. The partial halo CME from the M6/1b (mentioned in 1A above) is expected to pass late on day three with brief minor storming periods possible.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Nov till 01 Dec
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass20%20%25%
Proton15%20%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       28 Nov 199
  Prognoserat   29 Nov-01 Dec  205/210/220
  90 Day Mean        28 Nov 217
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Nov  001/002
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 28 Nov  004/004
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  004/005-006/008-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Nov till 01 Dec
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt10%10%35%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%40%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%05%

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