Viewing archive of söndag, 9 september 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Sep 09 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 252 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 Sep 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z Solar activity was high due to an M9/2N flare at
09/2045 UTC in Region 9608 (S27E18). This flare was quite impulsive
and located in centers south and east of the large trailer spots. An
M3/1N flare occurred at 09/1516 UTC in Region 9607 (S17E03). Region
9607 is at the northwest end of the elongated 9608/9607 sunspot
complex. This area continues to grow in sunspot area and magnetic
complexity. Decaying Region 9601 (N13W93) is rotating out of view
without producing significant flares during the past day.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with M-class flares and possibly another major
flare in the 9607/9608 complex.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled barring any influence from the
09/2045 UTC major flare discussed in Part IA. This forecast may be
modified after CME information is received from the SOHO spacecraft
later this evening or tomorrow. A solar energetic particle event is
currently not expected from this major flare.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 Sep till 12 Sep
| M-klass | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 09 Sep 236 Prognoserat 10 Sep-12 Sep 230/220/220 90 Day Mean 09 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 08 Sep 005/007 Förväntat Afr/Ap 09 Sep 008/006 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 008/010-008/012-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 Sep till 12 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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