Viewing archive of torsdag, 2 augusti 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Aug 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 214 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 Aug 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z Solar activity increased, but remained at low levels.
Region 9563 (N25E33) grew at a rapid pace and produced occasional
C-class subflares, including a C4/Sf at 02/1613 UTC associated with
a Type II radio sweep. Minor growth occurred in Regions 9557
(S20W15), 9564 (N14W54), and 9566 (N16E50), each of which produced
isolated subflares. Region 9566 also produced a C2/Sf flare at
02/1238 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep. Gradual decay was
noted in Region 9561 (S13E24), which produced an isolated C-class
subflare early in the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar actrivity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9563 could produce an isolated
M-class flare, especially if its present rate of growth continues.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
forecast to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels during 03 -
04 August due to an expected CME passage associated with filament
disappearances on 31 July. Activity is expected to decline to
unsettled levels on 05 August.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 Aug till 05 Aug
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 Aug 121 Prognoserat 03 Aug-05 Aug 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 149
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 01 Aug 010/012 Förväntat Afr/Ap 02 Aug 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 Aug till 05 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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