Viewing archive of lördag, 23 juni 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Jun 23 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 174 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 Jun 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9511 (N10E13) became
extremely active during the period, producing several C-class
events, three M-class events, and an impulsive X1/1b flare at
23/0408 UTC. Although still a relatively small region, 9511 has
quickly developed into a 22-spot Dao group with a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification. Region 9503 (N16W61) was also active during
the period, producing several optical subflares and an M6/1n event
at 22/2222 UTC. Three new regions were numbered: 9514 (N12E54), 9515
(S06E46), and 9516 (N12E70).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Several regions have the potential to produce minor
M-class events and Region 9411 could continue to produce isolated M
and X-class events. EIT imagery shows a potentially active region
beginning to rotate onto the disk in the northeast quadrant.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the forecast
period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 Jun till 26 Jun
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 23 Jun 206 Prognoserat 24 Jun-26 Jun 205/200/200 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 22 Jun 003/007 Förväntat Afr/Ap 23 Jun 008/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 Jun till 26 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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