Viewing archive of söndag, 17 juni 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Jun 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 168 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Jun 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Today's largest event was
a C3 at 2242 UTC which was not seen optically. Region 9503 (N14E20)
is currently the largest group on the disk, and shows continued
growth, enhanced plage and occasional brightenings. Region 9501
(S13W11) has also shown growth during the past 24 hours. Region 9502
(S25E05) continues to have an east-west inversion line, but appeared
to be a bit cooler today than previously. Region 9506 (N17E48) has
rotated into view as a beta-gamma group, but was relatively calm and
stable. Two filaments disappeared during the past 24 hours: a 14
degree filament near S27W11, and a 28 degree filament near N30E55.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. There is a slight chance,
however, for an isolated major flare event, particularly from 9503
and 9506.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet
conditions prevailed during the first 15 hours of the period, but
activity increased to unsettled to slightly active between 1200-2100
UTC. Solar wind signatures showed some kind of transient type flow
from 0300-1600 UTC which was accompanied be moderately negative
interplanetary Bz.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field for the
next 24 hours is expected to be mostly unsettled, but with a chance
for isolated active periods. Unsettled levels should prevail on the
second day, and activity should drop to quiet to unsettled levels by
the third day.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Jun till 20 Jun
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Jun 205 Prognoserat 18 Jun-20 Jun 200/200/195 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 172
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Jun 004/007 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Jun 010/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 015/015-010/010-005/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Jun till 20 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
Senaste nytt
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onsdag, 20 mars 2024
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