Viewing archive of lördag, 16 juni 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Jun 16 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 167 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 Jun 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9506 (N17E61)
produced today's largest event, a C9/1f at 15/2226 UTC. This region
has rotated more fully into view as a relatively large, bright
sunspot group with mixed magnetic polarities. Substantial growth was
observed in Region 9503 (N13E33) but no flares were reported during
the last 24 hours. Region 9502 (S25E19) showed slow growth and was
observed to produce a C5/Sf flare at 2010 UTC. Region 9495 (N06W73)
displayed growth and enhanced plage today and produced occasional
subflares.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, with the main flare-producing regions being 9502 and 9506,
although regions 9495 and 9503 may also contribute to the activity.
There is a slight chance for a major flare event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began yesterday at 1750 UTC attained a maximum of
26 PFU at 16/0005 UTC and ended today at 1210 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active tomorrow in possible response to recent CME
activity observed on the 13th and the 14th. Predominantly unsettled
levels are expected for the second and third days of the forecast.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 Jun till 19 Jun
| M-klass | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 16 Jun 208 Prognoserat 17 Jun-19 Jun 205/205/210 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 172
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 15 Jun 006/012 Förväntat Afr/Ap 16 Jun 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 020/020-010/012-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 Jun till 19 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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