Viewing archive of måndag, 4 juni 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Jun 04 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 155 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Jun 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9488 (S18E48) produced an M2/2b flare with associated tenflare of 210 sfu at 04/0812 UTC. This region also produced several lesser flares during the period, and now exhibits increased magnetic complexity, currently in a Cko/beta-gamma configuration. Another event of note occurred in spotless Region 9474 (N22W64) at 04/1633 UTC, when a C3/Sf flare and associated Type-II radio sweep was observed, along with a small, nearby filament disappearance. Some enhancement in 10MeV proton flux was observed following this event, indicating a well-connected location for this activity, though not expected to result in a proton event. CME activity was observed in association with today's events, but not appearing earth-directed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. Region 9488 is a likely source of more M-class activity as it continues to develop, along with Region 9484 (S06W06), which remains magnetically complex and capable of producing moderate flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period at higher latitudes during 04/0000-0300 UTC. Coronal hole high speed stream effects appeared to end at about 0700 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first two days of the period. There is a chance for development of coronal hole effects with isolated active periods possible beginning on day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Jun till 07 Jun
M-klass35%35%35%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       04 Jun 154
  Prognoserat   05 Jun-07 Jun  160/160/165
  90 Day Mean        04 Jun 169
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Jun  007/011
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 04 Jun  006/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  005/008-005/008-008/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Jun till 07 Jun
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%25%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%25%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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