Viewing archive of måndag, 14 maj 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 May 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 134 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 May 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z Activity decreased to low levels. Region 9455 (S17W24)
remained the most active of the visible regions. It produced
isolated C-class subflares, the largest of which was a C5/Sf at
14/0324 UTC. No significant changes occurred within this region, but
mixed polarities persisted within its intermediate spots. Some
polarity mixing was also observed in the vicinity of the leading
spots of Region 9454 (N12E18), which was relatively inactive during
the period. The remaining spot groups were unremarkable, including
newly numbered Regions 9458 (S11W45), 9459 (N26W09), and 9460
(S24E60).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9455. There will also be a slight chance for an
isolated M-class flare from Region 9454.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels until
approximately 14/0900 UTC, then decreased to quiet to unsettled
levels for the rest of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit increased to high levels during the
latter half of the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period with a chance for active levels at high latitudes. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
during the first half of the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 May till 17 May
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 May 138 Prognoserat 15 May-17 May 145/150/155 90 Day Mean 14 May 167
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 13 May 017/023 Förväntat Afr/Ap 14 May 013/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 012/015-012/020-007/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 May till 17 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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