Viewing archive of torsdag, 10 maj 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 May 10 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 130 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 May 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours. Two noteworthy C-class events occurred during the day. The first was a C5 which started at 0105 UTC, reached maximum at 0203 UTC, and ended at 0443 UTC. There were no observations of corresponding disk activity, but there was a CME just behind the Northwest limb of the Sun that could be reasonably associated with the event. The other was a C6 with start-max-end times of 1448-1519-1547 UTC: newly assigned Region 9454 (N15E74) was seen to brighten in H-alpha during the event, and a CME became visible on the East limb in C2 observations at 1530 UTC. A type II sweep was also associated with this event. New Region 9454 is now the largest sunspot group on the disk with an area of 300 millionths in an Eao-Beta configuration.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 9454.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An initially active geomagnetic field reached minor storm levels between 0000-0900 UTC. Conditions declined thereafter and were quiet to unsettled during the last nine hours of the day.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 May till 13 May
M-klass20%20%20%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       10 May 130
  Prognoserat   11 May-13 May  135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        10 May 168
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 09 May  019/032
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 10 May  028/035
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 May till 13 May
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden25%20%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden30%25%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%10%10%

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