Viewing archive of onsdag, 9 maj 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 May 09 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 129 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 May 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
9445 (N25W67) produced both of today's C1/Sf flares, the first at
0603 UTC and the second at 0853 UTC. The other active regions on the
disk were quiet and stable. A new region emerged at S08W28 and was
assigned as Region 9453.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low during the next three days. There is a slight
chance, however, for an isolated M-class event from Region 9445.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. Enhanced solar wind velocity, and periods
of sustained southward solar wind magnetic field orientation led to
an increase in geomagnetic activity. The plasma and field parameters
appear to be consistent with the passage of an interplanetary
transient. Minor storm periods were observed from 0000-0600 UTC, and
active conditions dominated most of the remainder of the day. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/1915 UTC ended at
08/1935 UTC. The peak of the event was 30 pfu at 08/0755 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes attained high levels briefly
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active during the next 12-24
hours as the current disturbance is likely to persist. Predominantly
unsettled levels are expected to prevail during the second and third
days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 May till 12 May
| M-klass | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 09 May 129 Prognoserat 10 May-12 May 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 09 May 168
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 08 May 016/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 09 May 028/035 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 May till 12 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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