Viewing archive of måndag, 27 november 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Nov 27 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 332 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 Nov 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few low-level C-class
flares occurred. Region 9236 (N19W51) has started to decline in most
parameters since yesterday's major flare. New Region 9244 (N15W30)
is emerging rapidly to the east of 9236 and has already generated a
C-class subflare. New Region 9243 (S12E30) was also numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9236 retains enough magnetic complexity for
another major flare. If Region 9244 continues to emerge at its
present rate it could start producing low-level M-class activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
This activity has been in response to the flare/CME activity on
24-25 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in
progress but is declining. The peak flux was 942 pfu at 26/2030 UTC.
The greater than 100 MeV proton event ended at 26/2040 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to major storm levels. CME's that occurred
on 26-27 November are expected to extend the present disturbance.
Barring any new CME's, the level of geomagnetic activity is expected
to diminish to unsettled to active levels by the third day of the
forecast period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to
continue its decay, ending within the next 48 hours.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 Nov till 30 Nov
| M-klass | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| X-klass | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Proton | 95% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 27 Nov 192 Prognoserat 28 Nov-30 Nov 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 175
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 26 Nov 019/022 Förväntat Afr/Ap 27 Nov 040/040 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 030/040-030/025-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 Nov till 30 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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