Viewing archive of tisdag, 31 oktober 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Oct 31 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 305 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 31 Oct 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9209
(S22W06) produced isolated C-class flares, the largest of which was
a C6/1f at 31/0300 UTC. The visible regions were largely stable. No
new regions were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9209 and 9212 (N10E34) appear capable of
producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels through
31/1700 UTC, then increased to unsettled to active levels following
a sudden impulse at 31/1715 UTC (8 nT, as measured by the Boulder
USGS magnetometer). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit became enhanced beginning at approximately
31/1200 UTC, but did not reach event criteria. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high
levels late in the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels during day one. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected for the rest of the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux is not expected to reach high
levels during the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 01 Nov till 03 Nov
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 31 Oct 193 Prognoserat 01 Nov-03 Nov 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 171
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 30 Oct 013/013 Förväntat Afr/Ap 31 Oct 015/016 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 015/018-010/015-007/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 01 Nov till 03 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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