Viewing archive of lördag, 25 november 2000

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Nov 25 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 330 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Nov 2000

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z

Solar activity continued at high levels. The period began with another X-class flare from Region 9236 (N22W20). The X1/2n flare occurred at 24/2159Z and had associated minor centimetric radio bursts and a CME. Reports of strong doppler shifts in the NE-SW filament in Region 9240 (N08E34) were soon followed by an impressive eruption at 25/0131Z. The eruption included an M8/2N, long duration ribbon flare with strong radio bursts including a 14000 sfu Tenflare. Strong Type II and IV sweeps also occurred with this flare and a CME was observed on LASCO imagery. Region 9236 flared again, producing an M3/2n flare and CME at 25/0920Z. The period ended with an X1/2b from Region 9236 with moderate to strong radio bursts and Type II sweep (910km/s). It appears that yet another Earth-directed CME was associated with this event. No significant new growth was noted in Region 9236 over the past 18 hours, but it continues to produce frequent flares in a complex, beta-gamma configuration exceeding 600 millionths of white light coverage.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. Region 9236 is capable of continued M and X-class events. A filament has reformed in the vicinity of the 0131Z eruption in Region 9240. If the present pattern continues, we should see another major event from this region in the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 24/1520Z is still in progress and is currently ranging 12 to 18 pfu. The maximum so far was 93 pfu at 24/1920Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 24/1720Z, ended at 24/1820Z with a peak flux of 1.1 pfu at 24/1810Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach minor to major storm levels early in day one. We observed as many as six Earth directed CME'S in the last 48 hours, so minor to major storm levels are expected through the next three days. Another proton event is possible should Regions 9236 or 9240 produce another major flare.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Nov till 28 Nov
M-klass75%70%60%
X-klass50%40%35%
Proton80%50%40%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       25 Nov 202
  Prognoserat   26 Nov-28 Nov  200/195/195
  90 Day Mean        25 Nov 175
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Nov  009/009
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 25 Nov  010/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  060/070-050/060-030/040
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Nov till 28 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%50%
Små stormförhållanden40%40%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden40%40%20%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%40%
Små stormförhållanden30%30%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden50%50%30%

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