Viewing archive of söndag, 29 oktober 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Oct 29 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 303 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Oct 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9209
(S24E21) showed gradual development with an increase in both
penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity. It produced a M4/2B
flare at 29/0157 UTC associated with 1800 sfu Tenflare, Type II and
IV radio sweeps, and a 9-degree filament disappearance. Further
analysis is required to determine if an Earth-directed CME
accompanied this flare. Regions 9212 (N08E61) and 9214 (S11E55)
produced isolated C-class subflares. Both regions showed a slight
degree of magnetic complexity. New Regions 9215 (N20W57) and 9216
(N17W07) were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9209 is expected to produce isolated M-class
flares. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from this
region.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity varied from unsettled to minor storm
levels. Minor storm levels were observed until 29/1200 UTC due to
sustained southward IMF Bz. Unsettled to active levels occurred
during the remainder of the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled during the first day.
Active conditions are possible during the last two days in response
to today's M4 flare.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Oct till 01 Nov
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 29 Oct 187 Prognoserat 30 Oct-01 Nov 190/195/200 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 170
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Oct 017/019 Förväntat Afr/Ap 29 Oct 026/028 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 012/018-015/020-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Oct till 01 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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