Viewing archive of torsdag, 5 oktober 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Oct 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 279 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Oct 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a
C2/1f flare at 0613Z from Region 9172 (N13W73). Region 9173 (S13W68)
is currently the largest region on the disk but is stable and in a
state of slow decline.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels
(estimated Kp of 7). A strong shock was observed at the ACE
spacecraft at 0241Z, and was followed by transient flow with
enhanced density, speed, and magnetic fields. Major to severe
storming at all latitudes began after 0300Z. There were two
intervals of strongly negative Bz: the first was from 0504-0543Z
with Bz values reaching -27 nT and the second was from 0958-1119Z
with Bz values reaching -23 nT. Severe (estimated Kp of 7) levels
were seen at high latitudes from 0300-1500Z and mid-latitudes also
attained the K=7 level from 0600-0900Z. The disturbance appeared to
be subsiding during the last three hours of the day.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels during the next 24
hours as the current disturbance subsides. Unsettled to active
conditions should follow on the 2nd day, and predominantly unsettled
levels are expected by day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Oct till 08 Oct
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 Oct 174 Prognoserat 06 Oct-08 Oct 170/160/150 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 184
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Oct 025/045 Förväntat Afr/Ap 05 Oct 075/085 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 025/035-015/015-012/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Oct till 08 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 50% | 30% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 25% | 10% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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