Viewing archive of söndag, 11 juni 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Jun 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 163 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 JUN 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9033 (N22E02)
PRODUCED AN M1/1F AT 11/1049Z. REGION 9030 (N12W50) PRODUCED A C7/1F
AT 11/1252Z. REGION 9026 (N21W51) PRODUCED ONLY MINOR ENHANCEMENTS
DURING THE PERIOD BUT NEARBY FILAMENTS EXHIBITED MASS MOTIONS.
SEVERAL REGIONS EMERGED ON THE DISK OR ROTATED OVER THE LIMB. NONE
APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. RECENT LASCO CORONAGRAPH DATA
INDICATE THERE WAS A FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOLLOWING THE
M5/3B EVENT AT 10/1702Z FROM REGION 9026.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A
MODERATE LEVEL. REGIONS 9026 AND 9033 ARE CAPABLE OF M-CLASS EVENTS.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM THESE REGIONS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD GENERALLY RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS. MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES FROM
11/0900-1200Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS ELEVATED (APPROACHING 600
KM/S AT THE END OF THE PERIOD). BZ WAS PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWARD FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN
AT 10/1805Z REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 46 PFU AT 10/2045Z AND DECAYED
BELOW 10 PFU AT 11/1130Z. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDED 1000 PFU AT 11/1550Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
RANGE PRIMARILY BETWEEN UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE LEVELS ON 12 JUN WITH
ISOLATED MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE. ABOUT MIDDAY ON 13 JUN, A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A RESULT OF THE FULL HALO EVENT
MENTIONED ABOVE. GENERALLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS AT MAJOR STORM POSSIBLE. THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 14 JUN THEN SLOWLY
ABATE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SOLAR PROTON EVENT AND PCA
SHOULD REGIONS 9026 OR 9033 PRODUCE A MAJOR FLARE. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEO SHOULD REMAIN ENHANCED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 JUN till 14 JUN
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 JUN 187 Prognoserat 12 JUN-14 JUN 195/205/210 90 Day Mean 11 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUN 016/025 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUN 022/032 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUN-14 JUN 015/015-025/030-018/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 JUN till 14 JUN
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 40% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 15% |
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