Viewing archive of måndag, 15 maj 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 May 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 136 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 MAY 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SEVEN M-CLASS EVENTS WERE
REPORTED DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST WAS AN M4/SF AT 15/0902UT
FROM REGION 9002 (N18E70). THIS EVENT ALSO INCLUDED A 640 SFU
TENFLARE AND A FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME). REGION 8993
(S21W72) PRODUCED THREE M1 EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8998
(S14E41) ALSO PRODUCED AN M1 EVENT. THERE WERE TWO UNCORRELATED
M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST REGION WAS 8996
(S21E31) WITH AN AREA OF 1280 MILLIONTHS AND 45 SPOTS. IT HAS SHOWN
AN INCREASE IN GROWTH AND SPOT COUNT SINCE YESTERDAY BUT HAS YET TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED:
9003 (S18W40) AND 9004 (N10E61).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT HIGH LEVELS DUE TO CONTINUED MULTIPLE M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. ACTIVE PERIODS COULD INCREASE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS
DUE TO POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE CME THAT OCCURRED ON 15 MAY, AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 MAY till 18 MAY
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 MAY 244 Prognoserat 16 MAY-18 MAY 245/250/250 90 Day Mean 15 MAY 189
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAY 011/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY 010/012-015/015-025/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 MAY till 18 MAY
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 70% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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