Viewing archive of torsdag, 11 maj 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 May 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 132 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 MAY 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C7 X-RAY FLARE. THERE WERE ALSO A NUMBER OF
SMALLER C-CLASS X-RAY AND OPTICAL SF FLARES. NEW REGIONS 8995
(S19E00), 8996 (S18E77), AND 8997 (S14E64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8989 (N17W14), 8990 (N14E05), 8993 (S23W19)
ARE ALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WEAK M FLARES. NEW REGION 8996 ALSO
BEARS WATCHING.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ACTIVITY FROM THE 8 MAY FILAMENT
ERUPTION EARLY ON DAY ONE, ALTHOUGH THERE HAS STILL NOT BEEN ANY
STRONG INDICATION OF ITS APPROACH IN THE ACE SATELLITE DATA. EFFECTS
OF A SMALL RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE ARE EXPECTED LATE 12 TO EARLY 13
MAY. YESTERDAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION AND LONG DURATION FLARE PRODUCED
A PARTIAL HALO CME OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO. AN ASSOCIATED SHOCK IS
EXPECTED LATE 13 OR EARLY 14 MAY.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 MAY till 14 MAY
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 MAY 178 Prognoserat 12 MAY-14 MAY 190/195/200 90 Day Mean 11 MAY 186
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAY 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAY 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAY-14 MAY 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 MAY till 14 MAY
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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