Viewing archive of fredag, 14 april 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Apr 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 105 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 APR 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8948
(S15W63) PRODUCED A LONG-DURATION C1 PARALLEL-RIBBON FLARE AT
13/2130Z ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE AND A
PARTIAL-HALO CME. THIS REGION, WHICH REMAINED IN A STATE OF GRADUAL
DECAY, ALSO PRODUCED A C7/1F FLARE AT 14/0816Z. REGIONS 8955
(S22E33) AND 8960 (N19W31) SHOWED MINOR GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD.
THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A FAIR BUT DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8948.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS ON 16 APRIL IN RESPONSE
TO THE PARTIAL-HALO CME MENTIONED ABOVE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS
SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 APR till 17 APR
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 APR 165 Prognoserat 15 APR-17 APR 165/160/160 90 Day Mean 14 APR 184
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 APR 003/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 APR 003/004 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 APR-17 APR 012/012-018/020-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 APR till 17 APR
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 45% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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