Viewing archive of tisdag, 9 maj 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 May 09 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 130 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 MAY 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8989 (N17E13) ENTERED A
GROWTH PHASE DURING THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPED MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS
THAT MAY INCLUDE A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION. THIS REGION PRODUCED
NUMEROUS C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST WAS A C9/SN FLARE AT 09/1740Z.
SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED FROM OTHER SMALL
REGIONS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ANOTHER LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION
BECAME VISIBLE IN THE LASCO CORONAGRAPH DATA. THIS SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE ORIGINATED FROM YET ANOTHER
FILAMENT ERUPTION IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN. A
MODERATE SIZE H TYPE SPOT ROTATED ONTO THE DISK AND WAS NUMBERED AS
REGION 8992 (N09E73).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. REGION 8989 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SMALL
M-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED GROWTH HERE COULD RESULT IN THE
DISSOLUTION OF SEVERAL NEARBY FILAMENTS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL MIDDAY ON 11 MAY WHEN A FILAMENT
ERUPTION RELATED STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED FROM THAT TIME THROUGH 13 MAY.
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DISTURBANCE.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 MAY till 12 MAY
| M-klass | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 09 MAY 150 Prognoserat 10 MAY-12 MAY 158/162/165 90 Day Mean 09 MAY 186
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAY 006/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAY 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAY-12 MAY 007/008-018/015-030/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 MAY till 12 MAY
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 25% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 30% | 40% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 15% |
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