Viewing archive of måndag, 8 maj 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 May 08 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 129 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 08 MAY 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. REGION 8990 (N13E49) BEGAN
TO EMERGE AT A MODERATE PACE DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED SEVERAL
LOW TO MID LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. A NEW REGION ROTATED OVER THE EAST
LIMB AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8991 (N16E70). OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS, THERE WERE SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT FILAMENT ERUPTIONS FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN. THESE FILAMENTS WERE LARGE AND
DENSE. A PARTIAL HALO WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO CORONAGRAPH SPANNING
FROM SE60-NW10 AT AROUND 08/0700Z. ANOTHER MASS EJECTION, THAT MAY
ALSO BE A PARTIAL HALO EVENT, BECAME VISIBLE AROUND 08/1800Z IN
ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION 8990 SHOULD INCREASE THE FREQUENCY
OF C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN M-CLASS EVENT
FROM EITHER REGION 8990 OR 8991.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR 09-10 MAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF 11
MAY. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE ON 11
MAY FROM THE ERUPTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 12-13 MAY.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 09 MAY till 11 MAY
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 08 MAY 137 Prognoserat 09 MAY-11 MAY 142/145/147 90 Day Mean 08 MAY 187
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 MAY 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 MAY 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 MAY-11 MAY 005/008-005/008-018/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 09 MAY till 11 MAY
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 40% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 02% | 20% |
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