Viewing archive of lördag, 6 november 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Nov 06 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 310 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 NOV 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. THREE SMALL
C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES WERE DETECTED, NONE OF WHICH WERE OPTICALLY
CORRELATED. REGION 8749 (S18W64) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY AND
PRODUCED A SINGLE SUBFLARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGION 8747 (N10W64)
ALSO SHOWED SIGNS OF SLOW DECAY. REGION 8757 (N38W03) SHOWED A MINOR
INCREASE IN SPOT COUNT AND AREA, BUT PRODUCED NO FLARES. REGION 8755
(N21E57) WAS DIVIDED INTO TWO REGIONS WITH THE TRAILING REGION
NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8758 (N18E64). NEW REGION 8759 (N10E78) WAS
ALSO NUMBERED. IT APPEARED TO BE THE RETURN OF OLD ACTIVE REGION
8731.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8749 AND 8759 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST DAY. CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE EARLY ON 08 NOVEMBER, THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DISTURBANCE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO
REACH HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 NOV till 09 NOV
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 06 NOV 150 Prognoserat 07 NOV-09 NOV 160/170/180 90 Day Mean 06 NOV 154
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 NOV 004/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 NOV 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 NOV-09 NOV 012/015-015/020-020/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 NOV till 09 NOV
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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