Viewing archive of fredag, 5 november 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Nov 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 309 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 NOV 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
8749 (S18W51) PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 05/1718Z ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST DISCRETE RADIO EMISSION. THIS REGION SHOWED GRADUAL DECAY,
BUT RETAINED A MIXED POLARITY STRUCTURE. A LONG-DURATION M3 X-RAY
FLARE OCCURRED AT 05/1829Z. THE SOURCE OF THE FLARE WAS JUST BEYOND
THE NORTHEAST LIMB WITH POST-FLARE LOOPS OBSERVED AT NE12 FOLLOWING
THE FLARE. EXTREMELY INTENSE CA XV ACTIVITY WAS VISIBLE ON THE
NORTHEAST LIMB, LIKELY INDICATING THE RETURN OF ACTIVE LONGITUDES.
NEW REGIONS 8755 (N19E71), 8756 (N18E11), AND 8757 (N38E09) WERE
ASSIGNED DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. MORE M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST LIMB. REGION 8749 MAY ALSO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. A SUDDEN
IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 05/2010Z WITH AN ESTIMATED MAGNITUDE OF 13 NT.
THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FIELD ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE IMPULSE.
ACE RTSW DATA INDICATED AN ABRUPT, BUT MINOR INCREASE IN SOLAR WIND
VELOCITIES AND A GRADUAL RISE IN DENSITIES AT L1 PRIOR TO THE SUDDEN
IMPULSE.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD INCREASING TO
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS BY DAY TWO. MINOR STORM PERIODS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
WELL. THIS INCREASED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DUE TO RECURRENT CORONAL
HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX MAY REACH HIGH
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 NOV till 08 NOV
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 NOV 161 Prognoserat 06 NOV-08 NOV 165/175/185 90 Day Mean 05 NOV 154
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 NOV 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 NOV 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 NOV-08 NOV 012/010-015/018-015/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 NOV till 08 NOV
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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