Viewing archive of onsdag, 23 juni 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Jun 23 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 174 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 JUN 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN
M1/2N FLARE AT 23/0709Z FROM REGION 8598 (N23E43). THIS FLARE WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP AS WELL AS MULTI-FREQUENCY
RADIO BURSTS. AT 23/0047Z A C7/1F FLARE OCCURRED, ORIGINATING FROM
UNSPOTTED REGION 8583 (S11W90). THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BACKGROUND
X-RAY FLUX LEVELS HOVERED AT OR NEAR C LEVELS WITH FREQUENT SMALL
C-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8598, WHICH LIES WITHIN A LARGE CLUSTER OF
REGIONS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE DISK, IS THE LARGEST AND
MOST MAGNETICALLY COMPLICATED SPOT GROUP ON THE DISK. REGIONS 8601
(S15W36), 8602 (N19E75), 8603 (S16E75) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. GROWTH AND MAGNETIC INTERACTION WITHIN THE LARGE
NORTHEAST CLUSTER OF REGIONS INCREASES THE CHANCES OF M-CLASS FLARES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. RECENT
ANALYSIS OF SOHO IMAGERY INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A HALO CME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE M1/1N FLARE ON 22/1829Z AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER GEOEFFECTIVE CME WITH TODAY'S M1 FLARE.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY
THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS THE EFFECT OF THE OBSERVED CMES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE FIELD TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE FOR MINOR STORMING.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 JUN till 26 JUN
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 23 JUN 168 Prognoserat 24 JUN-26 JUN 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 23 JUN 138
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUN 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUN 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUN-26 JUN 005/005-015/015-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 JUN till 26 JUN
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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