Viewing archive of torsdag, 27 maj 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 May 27 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 147 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 MAY 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE NUMEROUS C-CLASS
X-RAY FLARES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD; THE LARGEST WAS A C7 OPTICALLY
CORRELATED TO REGION 8545 (N37W85). BEGINNING AT 27/0917Z EIT
IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF SYMPATHETIC FLARES BETWEEN REGIONS 8551
(N32W14) AND 8554 (N26E11). THESE FLARES PRODUCED A NUMBER OF RADIO
EVENTS INCLUDING TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS AS WELL AS A 16000 SFU
TENFLARE. A CORRESPONDING HALO CME WAS SEEN ON LASCO C3 AT
27/1338Z. REGION 8552 (N20E25) REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX
REGION ON THE DISK.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED MODERATE ACTIVITY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A ENERGETIC
PROTON ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AT APPROXIMATELY 27/1130Z, BUT DID NOT
REACH THRESHOLD LEVELS. AFTER PEAKING AT APPROXIMATELY 27/1230Z THE
PROTONS STEADILY DECREASED.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
DURING DAY ONE THE GEOMAGNETIC
FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. BRIEF PERIODS OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A
RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE. BY DAY TWO THE IMPACT OF A CME IS EXPECTED
TO BRING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 MAY till 30 MAY
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 27 MAY 155 Prognoserat 28 MAY-30 MAY 155/165/165 90 Day Mean 27 MAY 129
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAY 007/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAY 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAY-30 MAY 010/012-020/025-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 MAY till 30 MAY
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 50% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 60% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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