Viewing archive of fredag, 1 maj 1998
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 May 01 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 121 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 MAY 1998IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
REGION 8214 (N26E34) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE THAT REACHED MAXIMUM AT
1300 UT. REGION 8214 IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN WHITE LIGHT AND HAS
BECOME MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX (BETA-GAMMA). REGION 8210 (S17W09)
PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES, AND HAS DEVELOPED IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY
INCLUDING A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. NUMEROUS SMALL RADIO
BURSTS AND TYPE III SWEEPS WERE OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY. NO NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, BUT SATELLITE AND GROUND-BASED IMAGES IN
SEVERAL WAVELENGTHS INDICATE THAT ACTIVE REGIONS, INCLUDING THE
POSSIBLE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8194, WILL SOON APPEAR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8210 AND 8214 ARE BOTH CAPABLE OF M-CLASS OR
LARGER X-RAY FLARES.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR STORM LEVELS ON 02 MAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF AN M6/HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON
29 APRIL. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 MAY till 04 MAY
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 01 MAY 113 Prognoserat 02 MAY-04 MAY 120/130/140 90 Day Mean 01 MAY 104
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 APR 012/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAY 007/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAY-04 MAY 030/027-010/012-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 MAY till 04 MAY
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 15% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 01% |
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