Viewing archive of torsdag, 30 april 1998
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Apr 30 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 120 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 APR 1998IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8210 (S16E03)
PRODUCED ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. THIS REGION MAINTAINED SOME MIXED
POLARITIES AND OVERALL WAS STABLE. THE TYPE IV RADIO BURST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE M6/3B FLARE ON 29 APR REMAINED IN PROGRESS
THROUGH THE LAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW
WITH OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES FROM REGION 8210. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENT IS POSSIBLE. THIS REGION COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER X-CLASS EVENT
BEFORE WEST LIMB TRANSIT BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS BECOMING LESSENED
AS THE REGION SIMPLIFIES MAGNETICALLY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL A 31 NT SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS
OBSERVED AT 30/0933Z. THIS WAS PRECEDED BY A SHOCK PASSAGE AT THE
ACE SPACECRAFT AT 30/0845Z. AFTER THE SUDDEN IMPULSE, UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BELIEVED TO BE
RELATED TO THE X1/HALO CME OBSERVED ON 27 APR. A WEAK ENERGETIC
PROTON (GT 10 MEV) ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AT 30/0405Z. MAXIMUM FLUX WAS 2
PFU. THIS ENHANCEMENT IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE M6/HALO CME OBSERVED ON
29 APR. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE
PREDOMINANTLY HIGH.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 01 MAY. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME. A LARGER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST FOR 02-03 MAY AS
A RESULT OF M6/HALO CME OBSERVED YESTERDAY. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS AT MAJOR STORM POSSIBLE. THE
CURRENT PROTON ENHANCEMENT SHOULD DECAY TO BACKGROUND LEVELS IN THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 01 MAY till 03 MAY
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 30 APR 103 Prognoserat 01 MAY-03 MAY 104/106/108 90 Day Mean 30 APR 104
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 APR 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 APR 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAY-03 MAY 020/018-030/030-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 01 MAY till 03 MAY
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 40% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 05% |
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