Viewing archive of tisdag, 17 mars 1998
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Mar 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 076 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 MAR 1998IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8179 (S22W30) PRODUCED
SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS, THE LARGEST BEING A C3/1F AT 17/1329Z.
THIS REGION HAS LOST MORE OF ITS MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY BUT MAINTAINS A
LARGE E-TYPE BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION WITH 44 SUNSPOTS COVERING 780
MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA. FREQUENT SUBFLARES AND PLAGE
FLUCTUATIONS WERE OBSERVED AND NUMEROUS MINOR RADIO BURSTS AND
SWEEPS WERE DETECTED. A FAINT, PARTIAL HALO/CME WAS OBSERVED AT
APPROXIMATELY 17/1500Z OFF THE SW LIMB, PROBABLY A RESULT OF THIS
MORNING'S C3/1F FLARE. A LARGE, 23 DEGREE LONG FILAMENT DISAPPEARED
DURING THE INTERVAL 16/2204-17/1147Z FROM THE SE LIMB. ALL REMAINING
REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8179, ALTHOUGH SHOWING SLIGHT DECAY, STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON DAY 2 AS A RESULT OF THE M1/1B HALO/CME ON 15/1900Z.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 MAR till 20 MAR
| M-klass | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 MAR 126 Prognoserat 18 MAR-20 MAR 122/120/118 90 Day Mean 17 MAR 096
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAR 010/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAR 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAR-20 MAR 010/010-015/012-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 MAR till 20 MAR
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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