Viewing archive of måndag, 16 mars 1998

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Mar 16 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 075 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 MAR 1998

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORROLATED M-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED: AN M2 WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS AT 15/2141Z AND AN M1 AT 16/0102Z. NO SOON SITES WERE OBSERVING THE SUN DURING THE EVENTS BUT REGION 8179 (S22W17) IS THE LIKELY SOURCE. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS FLARES INCLUDING A C7/1N AT 16/1157Z AND A C6/1F AT 1714Z. THE REGION APPEARS TO HAVE MATURED NOW AS AN EKC, 50 SPOT BETA GAMMA GROUP WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF 800 MILLIONTHS. THE WEAK DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS NO LONGER APPARENT. CORONAL INSTRUMENTS ON THE SOHO SATELLITE OBSERVED A HALO/CME OFF THE SE LIMB BEGINNING AT 15/1930Z. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE THE MOST IMPULSIVE OF REGION 8179'S FLARES - YESTERDAY'S M1/1B. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGION 8179 HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY; HOWEVER, IT REMAINS A LARGE AND COMPLEX REGION, UNDERGOING FREQUENT CHANGES IN SUNSPOT CONFIGURATION. GOOD POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES. A MINOR DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S HALO/CME IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 MAR till 19 MAR
M-klass50%50%45%
X-klass15%15%10%
Proton15%15%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       16 MAR 124
  Prognoserat   17 MAR-19 MAR  124/122/120
  90 Day Mean        16 MAR 096
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAR  012/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAR  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAR-19 MAR  010/012-010/008-015/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 MAR till 19 MAR
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%20%30%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%25%40%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%10%

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