Viewing archive of lördag, 13 september 1997
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1997 Sep 13 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 256 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 SEP 1997IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE UNCORRELATED C2 X-RAY
EVENT, MOST LIKLEY FROM REGION 8086 (N27E50), OCCURRED DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS REGION, A 5-SPOT 'CSO' BETA GROUP, ALSO PRODUCED
FOUR SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8084 (N22W39) HAS LOST SOME
OF IT'S SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY, BUT REMAINS STABLE IN AREA AS A
16-SPOT 'EAO' BETA-GAMMA GROUP. THE ONLY ACTIVITY OF NOTE FROM
REGION 8084 THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN A COUPLE OF SUBFLARES. REGION 8085
(S26W12) CONTINUES TO BE STABLE AND QUIET AS AN 18-SPOT 'FKI' BETA
GROUP. REGION 8083 (S28W73) HAS DECAYED INTO A 7-SPOT 'DAO' BETA
GROUP AS IT PREPARES TO ROTATE OFF THE WEST LIMB.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW, WITH ADDITIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS LIKLEY. IN ADDITION THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION 8084
OR 8085 STILL EXISTS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY
HIGH TO VERY HIGH, CROSSING OVER INTO THE VERY HIGH RANGE AT
APPROXIMATELY 13/1745Z, AND CONTINUING AT THAT LEVEL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MOSTLY
UNSETTLED ON DAY TWO WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS, AND BACK DOWN TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAY THREE.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 SEP till 16 SEP
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 SEP 108 Prognoserat 14 SEP-16 SEP 108/106/106 90 Day Mean 13 SEP 078
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 SEP 013/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 SEP 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 SEP-16 SEP 010/010-015/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 SEP till 16 SEP
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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