Viewing archive of fredag, 12 september 1997
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1997 Sep 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
************************************ CORRECTED COPY ****************************************** SDF Nummer 255 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 SEP 1997IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8084 (N22W26), A 22-SPOT
'EAO' BETA-GAMMA GROUP FOR MOST OF THE REPORTING PERIOD, HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED AN EMERGING FLUX REGION OF REVERSED POLARITY IN
THE FOLLOWING PART OF THE REGION, CREATING STEEP FIELD GRADIENTS.
THE REGION NOW DISPLAYS A MODEST DELTA CONFIGURATION AND ELONGATED
SPOTS IN THIS AREA, AND HAS GENERATED THREE C1 FLARES AND
NUMEROUS SUBFLARES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8085 (S26E02), A
33-SPOT 'FKI' BETA GROUP, AND 8083 (S27W59), A 12-SPOT 'EKO' BETA
GROUP, REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE AND QUIET.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE PROBABILITY FOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS REMAINS HIGH
FOR REGIONS 8084 AND 8085, WITH THE RECENT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
REGION 8084 ALSO PRESENTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED, WITH ISOLATED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY HIGH TO VERY HIGH,
CROSSING OVER INTO THE VERY HIGH RANGE AT APPROXIMATELY 10/1700Z,
AND CONTINUING AT THAT LEVEL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REPORTING
PERIOD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS
OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING
TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE,
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 SEP till 15 SEP
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 SEP 109 Prognoserat 13 SEP-15 SEP 108/107/105 90 Day Mean 12 SEP 078
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 SEP 009/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 SEP 017/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 SEP-15 SEP 015/015-010/010-005/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 SEP till 15 SEP
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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