Previsão do Clima Espacial - Discussão

Publicado: 2024 Apr 29 0030 UTC
Preparado pelo Departamento de Comércio dos EUA, NOAA, Centro de Previsão do Clima Espacial e processado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Atividade solar

Resumo das últimas 24h

Solar activity decayed to low levels. Region 3654 (S07W36, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced c-class events this period, the largest a C8.3/Sf flare at 28/2020 UTC. Region 3654 exhibited moderate development in the intermediate and trailer spots, and developed a delta magnetic configuration. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Previsão

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 29-30 Apr and 01 May with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity.

Partículas Energéticas

Resumo das últimas 24h

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Previsão

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 29-30 Apr and 01 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 29-30 Apr and 01 May.

Vento Solar

Resumo das últimas 24h

The solar wind environment was at mostly steady levels this period due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 8 nT and the Bz component was varied between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly in the mid 400s. The phi angle was in a predominantly positive orientation through the period.

Previsão

Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 29-30 Apr and 01 May due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs that are expected to pass in close proximity to Earth over the next few days.

Geoespaço

Resumo das últimas 24h

The geomagnetic field decreased from active early in the day to quiet levels from 28/0300 UTC onward.

Previsão

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to unsettled levels on 29-30 Apr, and quiet to active levels on 01 May due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days.