Previsão do Clima Espacial - Discussão

Publicado: 2023 Dec 02 0030 UTC
Preparado pelo Departamento de Comércio dos EUA, NOAA, Centro de Previsão do Clima Espacial e processado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Atividade solar

Resumo das últimas 24h

Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.1 flare at 01/0439 UTC from Region 3502 (N14W81, Cso/beta) and an M1.0 flare at 01/2120 UTC from Region 3500 (S18W44, Ekc/beta-gamma). Slight decay was observed in Region 3500. New Region 3509 (N10W50, Cri/beta) emerged in the NW quadrant while the remaining spotted regions were relatively stable. Other activity included a filament eruption centered near S30E58 that began at 01/1344 UTC. A subsequent CME was observed off the SE limb at 01/1448 UTC. Modelling is underway, however it is unlikely to have an Earth-directed component given its location. Also, an episode of EUV dimming was observed near Region 3500 after the M1 flare at 01/2120 UTC, however, not enough data is available for analysis at the time of this writing.

Previsão

Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance of M-class flares and a slight chance of an isolated X-class flare on 02-04 Dec, primarily due to the flare probability of Region 3500.

Partículas Energéticas

Resumo das últimas 24h

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Previsão

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be at moderate to high levels on 02-03 Dec. A decrease to normal levels is likely on 04 Dec with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. There is a slight chance of a S1 (Minor) event all three days due to the flare potential of Region 3500.

Vento Solar

Resumo das últimas 24h

Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of multiple CMEs from 27 and 28 Nov. The first arrival was at 30/2337 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 335 km/s to near 440 km/s while total field increased from 5 nT to 12 nT. The second arrival was at 01/0853 UTC, when solar wind speed increased from approximately 406 km/s to near 510 km/s, and total field increased from 15 nT to 25 nT. Total field continued between 13 nT and 28 nT through the rest of the period while solar wind speed ranged from around 480 km/s to 560 km/s. The Bz component ranged from +/-26 nT. Phi angle was variable.

Previsão

CME influence is expected to continue through midday on 02 Dec and slowly recover to nominal conditions through 03 Dec. Early on 04 Dec, a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Solar wind speeds in the 600-700 km/s range is likely based on recurrence.

Geoespaço

Resumo das últimas 24h

The geomagnetic field was at active to G3 (Strong) storm levels due to the arrival of multiple CMEs from 27 and 28 Nov.

Previsão

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storming, with a chance for G3 (Strong), on 02 Dec as CME effects persist. Quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 03 Dec as activity slowly wanes. Unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm levels is likely again on 04 Dec as a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.