Previsão do Clima Espacial - Discussão

Publicado: 2024 Apr 20 0030 UTC
Preparado pelo Departamento de Comércio dos EUA, NOAA, Centro de Previsão do Clima Espacial e processado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Atividade solar

Resumo das últimas 24h
Solar activity reached moderate levels this period. Region 3647 (S13W00, Dac/beta-delta) produced two M-flares (R1/Minor), the largest of which was an M2.1 flare at 19/0453 UTC. Region 3647 began to show signs of separation of the shared penumbra between its principle spots. Region 3645 (S09W04, Dai/beta) underwent slight decay in its intermediate spot area and consolidation of the leader and trailing spots. Region 3639 (N29W02, Ekc/beta-gamma) underwent some slight area growth. New Regions 3649 (N16W24, Bxi/beta), 3650 (S11E21, Cro/beta) and 3651 (N13E25, Bxo/beta) were numbered, but were otherwise unremarkable. Other activity included a large prominence eruption on the SE limb beginning at around 19/0400 UTC, however, the associated CME is not Earth-directed. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available data.
Previsão
Solar activity is expected to reach moderate levels on 19-21 Apr. M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are expected, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk.

Partículas Energéticas

Resumo das últimas 24h
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
Previsão
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 20-22 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) storm levels over 20-22 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk.

Vento Solar

Resumo das últimas 24h
Solar wind conditions became enhanced beginning at 19/0413 UTC due to CME activity. Following CME arrival, total field strength reached 18 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward after 19/0410 UTC with a peak of -17 nT observed. Solar wind speeds reached up to ~549 km/s at 19/2233 UTC.
Previsão
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 20-22 Apr due to CME activity (on 20 and 21 Apr) and negative polarity CH HSS influences (on 20-22 Apr).

Geoespaço

Resumo das últimas 24h
The geomagnetic field reached G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels this period in response to CME activity.
Previsão
Periods of unsettled to active levels are expected on 20-21 Apr due to continued CME activity, coupled with the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs from 16-18 Apr. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 22 Apr due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

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Fatos sobre o clima espacial

Última explosão X28/03/2024X1.1
Última explosão M19/04/2024M1.0
Última tempestade geomagnética19/04/2024Kp7 (G3)
Dias impecáveis
Último dia sem manchas08/06/2022
Número médio mensal de manchas solares
março 2024104.9 -19.8

Este dia na história*

Erupções solares
12022X2.25
22022M7.29
32001M5.99
41998M1.96
52022M1.9
ApG
1200270G3
2201843G2
3201728G2
4201422G1
5201116G1
*desde 1994

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