Previsão do Clima Espacial - Discussão

Publicado: 2024 Sep 09 1230 UTC
Preparado pelo Departamento de Comércio dos EUA, NOAA, Centro de Previsão do Clima Espacial e processado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Atividade solar

Resumo das últimas 24h

Solar activity reached high levels. Regions 3811 (S11W43, Dsi/beta-gamma) and 3806 (S11W85, Cai/beta) both contributed to the low level M-class activity. The largest flare was an M1.8 at 09/0545 UTC from Region 3806. Region 3806 also produced a long duration M1.0 flare at 09/0332 UTC with an associated CME off the W limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 09/0136 UTC. Preliminary analysis showed the CME to be a miss. Region 3806 was in decay as it approached the WSW limb. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3811, 3814 (N16E19, Eho/beta-gamma), 3816 (S11W17, Cao/beta), and 3821 (N13W44, Dso/beta). Other activity included an asymmetric halo CME first observed in STEREO A COR 2 imagery at 09/0523 UTC. The event could be seen in SUVI 304 imagery beginning at 09/0500 UTC just beyond the E limb and was determined to be backsided.

Previsão

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, on 09-11 Sep.

Partículas Energéticas

Resumo das últimas 24h

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV Proton flux began to increase after 09/0600 UTC, likely associated with the long duration M1.0 flare at 09/0332 UTC from Region 3806. Levels briefly reached the S1 (Minor) threshold at 09/0850 UTC but were not consistent enough to meet alert criteria.

Previsão

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 11 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to reach the S1 (Minor) threshold on 09 Sep. There is a chance for levels to continue above the threshold on 10 Sep followed by a slight chance on 11 Sep.

Vento Solar

Resumo das últimas 24h

Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced. Total field increased from 7 nT to 12 nT while the Bz component was between +12/-8 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from 316-426 km/s. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Previsão

Weakly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue through 09 Sep. Additional enhancements are likely on 10 Sep as the 08 Sep CME is anticipated to arrive by mid to late in the day. CME influences are likely to continue into the first half of 11 Sep before beginning to dissipate by the end of the day.

Geoespaço

Resumo das últimas 24h

The geomagnetic field was at quiet and unsettled levels.

Previsão

Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 09 Sep. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 10 Sep due to the arrival of the 08 Sep CME. Elevated activity is likely to persist into 11 Sep, keeping G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions likely throughout the first half of the day.