Affichage des archives de jeudi, 7 juin 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Jun 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 159 publié à 2200Z le 07 Jun 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares were
observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was a C9/2n flare
observed at 07/1543Z from Region 1499 (N15W09). This region
produced five other low level C-class flares during the period.
Region 1494 (S18W19) grew slightly and was also responsible for five
low level C-class flares during the period. These regions were
classied as Cai and Dso type groups, respectively, both with
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1497 (S21W44) decreased
in areal extent since yesterday, but remained the largest region on
the disk and was classified as a Dai type group with beta magnetic
characteristics.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began at unsettled to active levels, decreasing
to quiet levels for the remainder of the period. The solar wind
speed at the ACE spacecraft decreased from 700 to 600 km/s over the
past 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/- 4nT while the total field remained around 4
nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin the forecast period at unsettled levels with a
chance for active conditons on day one (08 June) as coronal effects
wane and a weak CME from 05 June arrives. Quiet conditions are
expected on day two (09 June) followed by a return to unsettled
conditions with a chance for active periods on day three (10 June)
with the potential arrival of a CME from 06 June.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 Jun au 10 Jun
| Classe M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 Jun 128 Prévisionnel 08 Jun-10 Jun 130/130/130 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 Jun 117
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 06 Jun 017/017 Estimé Afr/Ap 07 Jun 007/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 007/008-006/005-007/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 Jun au 10 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 30% | 15% | 30% |
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