Affichage des archives de vendredi, 11 mai 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 May 11 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 132 publié à 2200Z le 11 May 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours with several C-class x-ray flares. Region 1476 (N10W06) was
the source for nearly all of the reported flares, with the largest
being a C6 that occurred at 11/1738Z. This region has remained
mostly consistent as an Fkc/beta-gamma-delta spot group, but has
shown some signs of decay, mainly in the trailer spots. New Regions
1479 (N15E65) and 1480 (S16W10) were numbered over the last 24
hours, are Hsx/Axx classifications respectively, and have yet to
show much activity.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class x-ray flares for
the next three days (12 - 14 May) as Region 1476 keeps its
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours. Solar wind measurements, as observed by the ACE
spacecraft, showed a fairly steady drop in speeds from approximately
650 km/s down to approximately 550 km/s. The effects of the coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) should begin to wane over the next
24-48hrs. The total IMF remains fairly stable at approximately 5
nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two
(12-13 May), then return to quiet levels on day three (14 May).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 12 May au 14 May
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 11 May 136 Prévisionnel 12 May-14 May 130/130/130 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 11 May 113
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 10 May 011/013 Estimé Afr/Ap 11 May 011/012 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 12 May au 14 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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