Affichage des archives de vendredi, 18 mai 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 May 18 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 139 publié à 2200Z le 18 May 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C3 at 18/0823Z from old Region 1476 (N10, L=180), which
rotated off the disk. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA
304 imagery beginning at 18/0510Z near Region 1482 (N15W17). An
associated CME was observed in STEREO A COR 2 imagery beginning at
18/0709Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of approximately 482
km/s. The majority of the ejecta appeared to be slightly north of
the ecliptic plane, however a glancing blow is likely.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare all three days
(19 - 21 May).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 100 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at
17/0200Z, reached a maximum of 20.4 pfu at 17/0230Z and ended at
17/1725Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is currently
hovering close to the 10 pfu threshold (S1).
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods on day 1 (19 May) due to a possible shock arrival from the
17 May CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (20
May). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (21 May).
There is a slight chance for shock enhancement of the greater than
10 MeV protons above 10 pfu on day 1.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 19 May au 21 May
| Classe M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 18 May 132 Prévisionnel 19 May-21 May 135/135/130 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 18 May 115
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 17 May 005/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 18 May 008/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 19 May au 21 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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