Affichage des archives de vendredi, 20 avril 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Apr 20 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 111 publié à 2200Z le 20 Apr 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. New Region 1465 (S17E39 -
Dao/beta) emerged early in the period and showed significant growth.
It produced occasional C-class flares including a C1/1f
parallel-ribbon flare at 20/1501Z. Regions 1459 (S16E01 - Dai/beta),
1460 (N15W15 - Dkc/beta), and 1462 (S25W46 - Dho/beta) also showed
significant growth during the period. Region 1462 produced an
isolated C-class flare as it grew. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
during the period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (21 - 23 April) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with brief
active periods at high latitudes. ACE solar wind data indicated the
minor increase in activity was due to a solar sector boundary
crossing (SSBC) at approximately 20/0700Z. The SSBC was associated
with increased IMF Bt (maximum 8 nT at 20/1059Z) and a period of
sustained southward IMF Bz (maximum deflections to -7 nT around
20/0400Z).
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during the first half of day 1 (21
April). Activity is forecast to increase to unsettled levels with a
chance for active levels beginning around 21/1500Z and continuing
into day 3 (23 April) due to expected glancing blows from the
partial-halo CMEs observed on 18 and 19 April. There will also be a
slight chance for minor storm levels on day 1.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 21 Apr au 23 Apr
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 20 Apr 142 Prévisionnel 21 Apr-23 Apr 150/150/150 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 20 Apr 112
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 19 Apr 005/005 Estimé Afr/Ap 20 Apr 007/007 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 014/015-011/012-010/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 21 Apr au 23 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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