Affichage des archives de jeudi, 8 mars 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Mar 08 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 068 publié à 2200Z le 08 Mar 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C7/Sf flare was observed
from Region 1428 (S17W19). Region 1429 (N17E01) remains a large Ekc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification.
Possible separation was observed within the intermediate area of the
spot group.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels with a chance for further X-class activity
from Region 1429 for the next three days (09 - 11 March).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions
with major storm periods observed at high latitudes during 08/1200 -
1800Z. At 08/1045Z, a 40 nT shock was observed at the ACE
spacecraft from the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME)
associated with the X5 flare that occurred early on 07 March. A
sudden impulse was observed shortly after at the Boulder
magnetometer at 08/1105Z (59 nT). Minor storm periods were observed
as a result of the CME arrival. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event that began at 07/0510Z increased to a maximum of 6530 pfu at
08/1115Z as a result of the CME shock. The greater than 100 MeV
proton event that began at 07/0405Z, and reached a maximum value of
69.3 pfu at 07/1525Z, has slowly declined.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor to major
storm periods possible on day 1 (09 March) as the Earth continues to
be under the influence of the CME from 07 March. Quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods possible are expected for
days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 March).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 09 Mar au 11 Mar
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 70% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 08 Mar 140 Prévisionnel 09 Mar-11 Mar 140/135/135 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 08 Mar 125
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 07 Mar 033/064 Estimé Afr/Ap 08 Mar 018/027 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 017/027-007/012-007/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 09 Mar au 11 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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