Affichage des archives de mercredi, 28 décembre 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Dec 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 362 publié à 2200Z le 28 Dec 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1386 (S18E08), Region 1387 (S21W70) and New Region
1389 (S20E70) have all produced C-class events, the largest being
from Region 1389, which was a C7/1F flare at 1425Z. Region 1386 and
1387 both continue to grow and evolve, but have yet to produce
major solar activity. Several small non-Earth directed CMEs were
observed during the summary period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (29 - 31 December).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Signatures observed by the ACE spacecraft indicate the arrival of a
small CME around 0950Z. Solar wind speeds increased from around 250
km/s to 280 km/s with and increase in the total IMF to around 14 nT.
This transient appears to be from an unknown event, perhaps on 24
December. The lower energetic particle sensors on the ACE spacecraft
continue to gradually increase, indicating another approaching CME.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with a chance for isolated
minor storm levels on day one (29 December) as multiple CMEs are
expected to arrive. Quiet to unsettled level are expected on day two
(30 December) as effects the previous CMEs wane. Predominantly
quiet levels are expected on day three (31 December).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 Dec au 31 Dec
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 Dec 145 Prévisionnel 29 Dec-31 Dec 145/140/140 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 Dec 144
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 27 Dec 002/001 Estimé Afr/Ap 28 Dec 003/004 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 015/022-012/012-005/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 Dec au 31 Dec
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 15% | 01% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 20% | 01% |
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