Affichage des archives de lundi, 28 novembre 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Nov 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 332 publié à 2200Z le 28 Nov 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the
period was a C3 at 28/1830Z from Region 1361 (N18E21). Region 1361
had decay in its intermediate spots with slight growth in its
trailer spot. Region 1362 (N07E60) has shown numerous smaller
trailer spots since rotating further into view. An eruptive
filament was first observed at 28/0534Z in SDO AIA 304 imagery near
Region 1362. A CME, likely associated with this event, was seen
shortly after in STEREO A COR2 imagery beginning at 28/0809Z. The
ejecta was mostly directed off the west limb as observed in
SOHO/LASCO imagery. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event above 10 PFUs began at 26/1125Z, reached a maximum flux of 80
PFUs at 27/0125Z, and ended at 28/0145Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods on days 1-2 (29-30 November). Activity is due to a
combination of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and the
coronal mass ejection (CME) from 26/0712Z. On day 3 (01 December)
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 Nov au 01 Dec
| Classe M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 Nov 138 Prévisionnel 29 Nov-01 Dec 140/145/145 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 Nov 141
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 27 Nov 005/006 Estimé Afr/Ap 28 Nov 006/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 012/018-011/012-007/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 Nov au 01 Dec
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 38% | 31% | 17% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 12% | 04% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 00% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 16% | 15% | 16% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 43% | 43% | 22% |
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