Affichage des archives de samedi, 26 novembre 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Nov 26 2220 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF numéro 330 publié à 2200Z le 26 Nov 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. A long duration C1 flare was observed at 26/0710Z in
conjunction with an eruptive filament channel near Region 1353
(N08W49). A full halo CME, first observed in C2 imagery at 26/0712Z,
was also associated with this event. The other regions on the disk
remained mostly stable and quiet throughout the period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events, for the next
three days (27-29 November).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
At around 26/0840Z, signatures from the ACE spacecraft indicated
elevated levels of greater than 10 MeV protons. This increase was
associated with the eruptive filament channel, CME, and C1 flare
mentioned earlier. A greater than 10 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit began at 26/1125Z. Max flux for this event,
thus far, was 54 pfu at 26/2055Z. This proton event was still in
progress when this report was issued.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels on day one (27
November). An increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm conditions is expected on days two and three (28-29
November). These elevated conditions are the result of the combined
effects of a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective
early on day two, and the arrival of todays full halo CME late on
day two or early on day three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 27 Nov au 29 Nov
| Classe M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 90% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 26 Nov 133 Prévisionnel 27 Nov-29 Nov 135/140/145 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 26 Nov 140
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 25 Nov 003/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 26 Nov 003/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 006/008-011/012-013/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 27 Nov au 29 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 39% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 03% | 17% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 00% | 01% | 02% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 11% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 27% | 26% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 08% | 58% | 61% |
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