Affichage des archives de lundi, 26 septembre 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Sep 26 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 269 publié à 2200Z le 26 Sep 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1302 (N13E23) produced the largest event of the
period, a M2 x-ray flare at 1446Z. Region 1301 (N17W23) and Region
1303 (S28W90) also produced several low level C-class events.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels on day one (27 September). Low to moderate levels
are expected on day two (28 September) and predominantly low levels
are expected on day three (29 September). Region 1302 remains the
most active Region on the disk but has only produced one M-class
event over the past 24 hours.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at major storm levels for the past 24
hours. A CME, observed leaving the solar disk on 24 September,
arrived at Earth on 26/1237Z. Indicating the arrival of the CME, a
45 nT sudden impulse was observed by the Boulder magnetometer. As
the CME progressed, measurements by the ACE spacecraft showed the
total IMF reaching a peak of 33 nT, with the negative (Southward
Component, Bz) reaching a maximum of-31 nT. Solar wind speeds
increased from around 350 km/s to 650 km/s. During the CME passage,
both GOES 13 and GOES 15 spacecraft showed clear magnetopause
crossings. The greater than 10 MeV proton event, that began at
23/2255Z, reached up to 35.7 pfu at 26/1115Z, and continues to
remain above the 10 pfu threshold.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the next two days
(27-28 September) with a slight chance for minor storm levels, due
to the trailing effects of the latest CME and the possible arrival
of a second CME. A return to predominately quiet levels is expected
on day three (29 September).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 27 Sep au 29 Sep
| Classe M | 80% | 40% | 30% |
| Classe X | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 99% | 30% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 26 Sep 148 Prévisionnel 27 Sep-29 Sep 145/145/140 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 26 Sep 108
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 25 Sep 004/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 26 Sep 027/060 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 012/010-010/015-005/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 27 Sep au 29 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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